États-Unis Attentes inflationnistes

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose for the second straight month to 3.6% in March 2025, the highest level since October 2023 from 3.1% in February. Median year-ahead expected price growth increased for food (+0.1 percentage point to 5.2%, its highest level since May 2024), medical care (+0.7 percentage point to 7.9%), and rent (+0.5 percentage point to 7.2%). On the other hand, price expectations fell for gas (-0.5 percentage point to 3.2%), college education (-0.2 percentage point to 6.7%), and home price growth (-0.3 percentage point to 3%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3% for the three-year-ahead horizon, and ticked down by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% at the five-year-ahead horizon. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8% and mean unemployment expectations jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44%, the highest reading since April 2020.