Australie L'Indice Économique Avancé

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia edged down 0.1% month-over-month in March 2025, reversing the 0.1% increases in the previous two months. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate—which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months ahead—fell to 0.6% from 0.9% in February. The latest data suggest the economy is beginning to feel the impact of trade policy disruptions that intensified following U.S. President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff announcement on April 2. Westpac now expects GDP growth to slow to around 1.9% year-over-year in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.2%. According to Matthew Hassan, Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, the weakening external environment and mounting evidence of sustained slowing in domestic inflation will likely prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver an additional 25bps rate cut at its May meeting.